Big Sky Cairn

Rasmussen reports that McCain’s lead in Montana has grown to a staggering eleven points - well outside the margin of error but within expectations for Montanans not trying to secure posh positions in the Obama Administration once their term limits are up. Montana Headlines does a great job of ferreting out what this poll shows - and why it may not be a flash in the pan.

Jay Stevens at Left in the West is the only left-wing blogger to cover this so far, and he is beginning to see that the writing on the wall is not another Obama miracle after all.

That said, while I don’t think the November margin of victory will be 11 points, this race is trending Republican. The question has to be, will Obama keep putting the resources into the state if he’s losing ground here? Even if it’s winnable, Montana represents only 3 Electoral College votes, hardly as critical as Florida, say, which is likely McCain +3, or Pennsylvania, which is Obama +3.

Interestingly enough, this sounds suspiciously like what Denny Rehberg said last week from the GOP Convention:

U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg says he does not believe Montana is a presidential battleground.

The Montana Republican says the state party is telling Sen. John McCain to focus his campaign effort on other states.

And here:

Rehberg said Montana Republicans are advising McCain to spend campaign resources on battleground states such as Ohio and Florida, which are considered more pivotal for winning the election.

This is what Rehberg and Erik Iverson have been saying since the beginning, so it’s nice to see Jay come around to reality. Sure it was nice of The Chosen One to grace Montana with his presence, but he was never actually going to win here. We all remember a certain Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana saying as much back in April:

While he thinks either Obama or Clinton running on his or her own has a 50-50 shot of winning the White House against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, Schweitzer doesn’t think either Democrat can take Montana.

Asked why not, he had a one word answer: “Guns.”

There will be another poll down the road that’s a little closer and the Kool-aid will start flowing again. I’ve got a hunch, though, like Jay that we’ve seen the last of Obama in these here parts.

“I’ve got a hunch, though, like Jay that we’ve seen the last of Obama in these here parts.”

That’s too bad. I was sort of hoping The One would return and walk across Flathead Lake or something. But why is he taking Jay with him?

Alas, it’s not Obama taking me away, but the real “One” — my wife.

It does look like Montana may slip away from Obama. Still, the gains he made in the state are tremendous. I suspect it’ll be something like 49-45 percent in November, which represents a huge uptick in support for a Democratic presidential candidate over recent past elections. That’s — what? — a 7-point bump? I’m guessing after four years of an Obama presidency he could win the state outright.

And the race isn’t over. Obama could still win Montana. I wish the poll had been a week earlier or a week later to get a more accurate accounting of where we’re at, instead of in the shadow of the RNC.

And I do think Rehberg’s and Iverson’s confidence is misfounded. There’s a grassroots infrastructure building around Obama, and a lot of folks will be voting for a Democrat for the first time. (The first time’s always the scariest.) They should be working furiously to come up with conservatism for the 21st century instead of banging the drums of 1994.

IMHO.

[…] Delegation and Brian Schweitzer some serious love at the Dem Convention… and after all that. McCain is up by double digits in Montana. Is that egg on your face […]

Rehberg and Iverson are not figuring in the 20,000 Ron Paul votes in the June primaries. Even if only 3/4 of these stick with Paul, which I suspect they will, this will cost McCain. Montana voters are waking up to the control the two party system has over the citizens.

The only real wild card left is the women vote. McCain choosing Palin, a political stoke of genius maybe, could take some of the Hillary votes.