Big Sky Cairn

While others have focused on more over the top rhetoric from Governor Schweitzer, I will focus on what came out last Friday.

Specifically this quote:

‘‘They are working on some things, and Montana is working on some things, and it will be fine,’’ Schweitzer said.

As much as I disagree with the Governor he is an adept politician. He knows that the looming May 11 deadline for REAL ID compliance has a good chance of blowing up in his face if the situation is not resolved.

Now I am a bit under the weather, and this may be the medication talking, but let me lay out a couple scenarios about how I see the REAL ID situation playing out over the next couple weeks.

Right now one of about three things can happen. Either Montana caves to federal demands (unlikely), DHS caves into Montana’s demands (even more unlikely), or some sort of compromise is reached.

The way I see the dominoes falling is that Governor Schweitzer knows he has limited allies in his quixotic crusade outside of Montana. Right now, only Maine and South Carolina have not asked for extensions. He has to seek a way out of the corner he has painted himself into.

According to Friday’s AP article, it looks like the compromise will be coming from Attorney General McGrath’s office. They are alreadly seeking counsel with the Legislature to see if Montana can apply for a waiver. So what if the AG writes the letter to DHS asking for an extension? It would be a win - win for the Governor and the State. Since the letter does not orginate from the Governor’s office, he is free to continue his same old song and dance. All the while, the average Montanan can board a plane flight without being molested by a TSA agent. If there is any blowback from civil liberty groups, the Governor will be able to direct the blame to the federal government and the Attorney General’s office.

Of course this whole situation relies on McGrath being a willing pawn in the Governor’s game.

Just a possibility. As the Governor acknowledged, this game of chicken has to end. This way would seem to make more sense than either DHS or Schweitzer backing down.

I could not let this go without a mention, but it looks like Governor Schweitzer made some international headlines…in Tehran.

UPDATE:

So it looks like the two fine Senators are asking for Homeland to delay implementation for all 50 states.  I am pessimistic by nature, so I do not see anyway Chertoff can get around the fact that the law requires the provisions to go into effect three years after enactment.  Reading Baucus’s comments, one has to wonder if he even bothered to read this bill before he voted for it in 2005.

[…] the State remembers who did, and did not, help in this situation. Cannot say I am surprised about how the deadlock was resolved. Attorney General McGrath acted like an elected public official […]